FOMC Meeting Today [ LIVE] Updates

Investors are increasingly viewing today’s FOMC meeting as a potential positive catalyst for risk assets. Markets are pricing in a near-certain probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged, while recent declines in oil prices have helped ease inflation concerns.

The meeting also marks Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair, making investors particularly focused on his first press conference. The outlook matters because any indication that the Fed is not becoming more aggressive on inflation could support stocks and cryptocurrencies. Next, markets will analyze Warsh’s comments and the Fed’s updated projections for signals on future policy.

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision today at 2:00 PM ET, with investors closely watching for any change in the benchmark rate. Markets broadly expect rates to remain within the current 3.50%–3.75% range, making the Fed’s guidance and economic projections just as important as the decision itself.

A lower-than-expected rate could boost risk assets, while a higher-than-expected rate may pressure stocks and cryptocurrencies. Next, attention will shift to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC press conference and the updated dot plot for clues on the future path of monetary policy.

Investors are focused on three key Federal Reserve signals today: the interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC press conference at 2:30 PM ET, and the Fed’s updated dot plot. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, making the policy statement less likely to drive markets.

The bigger focus is Warsh’s outlook on inflation and future rate moves following recent CPI and PPI data. The dot plot is also critical, with some officials expected to project additional rate hikes this year. Next, markets will assess whether the Fed’s guidance points to tighter policy, which could weigh on stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Kevin Warsh begins his tenure as Federal Reserve Chair today with his first FOMC meeting, and historical market data points to a challenging pattern. Over nearly a century and 12 Fed chair transitions, the S&P 500 has experienced a drawdown within the first 90 days of every new chair’s term.

The average decline has been 12%, with the steepest drop occurring under Alan Greenspan at 33%, while Ben Bernanke saw the smallest decline at 2%. The next 90 days will be closely watched to see whether Warsh’s tenure follows the same historical trend or breaks it.

Today marks the first FOMC meeting led by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Falling energy prices, driven by expectations of a Middle East ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, could support arguments for keeping rates unchanged and adopting a wait-and-see approach.

The decision matters because money markets still assign an 87% chance of at least one rate hike by year-end as inflation remains elevated. Investors will closely watch the Fed’s updated dot plot for clues on future policy. Separately, May retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month, beating expectations of 0.6%, signaling continued strength in consumer spending.

About $420 billion was wiped from the U.S. stock market in 30 minutes as investors sold risk assets ahead of two major events on June 17, 2026. The decline comes before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC press conference, as well as President Donald Trump’s scheduled remarks on the Iran peace deal.

The selloff matters because both events could influence interest rate expectations, inflation outlooks, and broader market sentiment. Next, investors will closely watch the Fed’s policy announcement at 2:00 PM ET and Trump’s 4:00 PM ET press conference for market-moving signals.